Freight, Fuel & Football: Week 4 NFL

⛽ Diesel & Market Update

Mid-September brought a slight pullback in diesel prices, but the broader story is caution. The national average on-highway diesel price dipped 3 cents to ~$3.74/gal, though that’s still 21¢ higher than this time last year.

Globally, Russia announced a partial diesel export ban through year’s end to safeguard its domestic supply after repeated drone strikes on refining operations. Analysts expect the global effect to be limited due to existing export channels and pipeline volumes. Meanwhile, EU sanctions on Russian refined products continue to squeeze global supply, keeping prices supported.

Freight market trends:

• Spot truckload rates are softening in many lanes as demand eases.

• Port and intermodal networks remain volatile, with congestion and drayage costs pushing some shippers to alternate gateways.

• Smart shippers are locking in flexible routing agreements and fuel surcharge clauses to hedge volatility.

  
  

🌱 Commodity Spotlight – Renewable Diesel & Soybean Basis

Policy pushes toward renewable diesel have increased demand for soybean oil feedstock. A recent study found existing crush plants can raise local soybean basis by 9–23¢ per bushel, though the effect diminishes with distance.

For agricultural and energy shippers, this means tighter margins but new opportunities—especially in regions near processing hubs.

🏈 Sports Corner

NFL Deep Dive (Heading into Week 5)

• Buffalo Bills: Still viewed as the AFC favorite. Their upcoming stretch is seen as the golden chance to make a Super Bowl run.

• 2–2 Teams: Several squads sit at .500. The big question: who’s a true contender, and who’s just treading water?

Week 5 Matchups to Watch:

• 49ers vs. Rams (Thursday): A high-stakes NFC battle under the lights.

• Bills vs. Patriots (Sunday Night): Buffalo enters as an 8.5-point favorite, with momentum firmly on their side.

• Chiefs at Jaguars (Monday Night): Patrick Mahomes headlines the prime-time closer. I will keep looking to see if the Chiefs still got that championship team fervor because the first 3 weeks have not been very convincing.

Injury Watch: Depth is becoming critical. Defensive leaders like Nick Bosa (49ers) are already sidelined, shifting the playoff picture. Quarterbacks who avoid turnovers will define the next few weeks.

Soccer Highlights ⚽

• La Liga: Real Madrid stay unbeaten; Barcelona keep pace. HALA MADRID!!!

• Premier League: Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal push up top, while expected contenders struggle for consistency.

• World Cup 2026: Heat risk and infrastructure readiness dominate logistics conversations as ticket presales ramp up.

  
  

✍️ Closing Note

Fuel markets are stabilizing but remain risky, freight rates are soft yet uncertain, and global diesel supply constraints could keep costs elevated. In football, momentum shifts weekly, and what looks like stability today may unravel quickly.

For shippers and carriers, the lesson is the same as on the field: stay flexible, build depth, and make smart plays before the pressure mounts.

– Hector Escobar | Eterna Logistics